Viggo Mortensen and Mahershala Ali deliver virtuoso performances in “Green Book,” one of the year’s best films that’s bound to be a major contender during this year’s movie awards season.
Inspired by a true story, Mortensen plays Tony Vallelonga, a tough, Italian-American bouncer at the Copa in New York City in 1962 who finds himself out of work for a couple of months when the club shuts down for repairs. Despite his own prejudices, Tony takes a job driving a Dr. Don Shirley, an African-American concert pianist on a tour that eventually winds into the Deep South, where they’ll confront the worst kind of racism.
Channeling what feels like a character straight out of “Goodfellas,” Mortensen delivers a career performance as Tony while Ali is great as usual as Don in a pair of complex performances that should easily warrant both Best Actor and Best Supporting Actor Oscar nominations and other industry/critics accolades in the coming months.
The film’s biggest surprise, though, is the direction of Peter Farrelly — one half the Farrelly brothers comedic filmmaking duo — who takes his immense talents into the dramatic realm and creates an incredibly emotional film across the board. As a result, “Green Book” will not only anger you and break your heart, it will make you make you smile, laugh and cry on its way to being an inspiring tale of hope. It’s a brilliant movie.
Lammometer: 9.5 (out of 10)
Tim Lammers reviews movies weekly for The KQ92 Morning Show,” “KARE 11 News at 11” (NBC), WCCO Radio, WJON-AM, KLZZ-FM, “The Tom Barnard Podcast” and “The BS Show” with Bob Sansevere.
The 90th annual Academy Awards ceremony is Sunday, and you can bet some people will be solely tuning in to see if there will be a screw-up as monumental as last year’s Best Picture envelope fiasco. That’s unlikely, but with any luck, host Jimmy Kimmel will have fun with the faux pas all night long. The show simply needs something out of the ordinary, because with the predictability of this year’s nominations, the show, barring a couple of potential upsets, is shaping up to be another 3 1/2-hour Academy borefest.
Despite the formulas pundits put into play to make their picks, predicting the winners of the Oscars doesn’t take much homework. Basically, ignore the awards handed out by the critics and the Hollywood Foreign Press Association (the members of which hand out the Global Globes), because journalists don’t vote on the Oscars. Instead, the trends lie with industry awards – the Producers Guild of America, the Director’s Guild of America, the Screen Actors Guild and the British Academy of Film and Television Awards – because some, but not all, are voting members of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts & Sciences.
With that, making this year’s picks quickly fell into place. Here are my predictions and some potential upsets.
Best Supporting Actor nominees: Willem Dafoe, “The Florida Project”; Woody Harrelson, “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”; Richard Jenkins, “The Shape of Water”; Christopher Plummer, “All the Money in the World”; Sam Rockwell, “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”
Will win: Sam Rockwell, “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”
Possible upset: Willem Dafoe, “The Florida Project”
Best Supporting Actress nominees: Mary J. Blige, “Mudbound”; Allison Janney, “I, Tonya”; Lesley Manville, “Phantom Thread”; Laurie Metcalf, “Lady Bird”; Octavia Spencer, “The Shape of Water”
Will win: Allison Janney
Possible upset: Laurie Metcalf, “Lady Bird”
Best Actor nominees: Timothée Chalamet, “Call Me by Your Name”; Daniel Day-Lewis, “Phantom Thread”; Daniel Kaluuya, “Get Out”; Gary Oldman, “Darkest Hour”; Denzel Washington, “Roman J. Israel, Esq.”
Will win: Gary Oldman, “Darkest Hour”
Possible upset: Not a chance. Oldman is due for what is easily the best performance of the year.
Best Actress nominees: Sally Hawkins, “The Shape of Water”; Frances McDormand, “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”; Margot Robbie, “I, Tonya”; Saoirse Ronan, “Lady Bird”; Meryl Streep, “The Post”
Will win: Frances McDormand, “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”
Possible upset: Sally Hawkins, “The Shape of Water”
Best Picture nominees:
“Call Me by Your Name”; “Darkest Hour”; “Dunkirk”; “Get Out”; “Lady Bird”; “Phantom Thread”; “The Post”; “The Shape of Water”; “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”
Will win: “The Shape of Water”
Possible upset: “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri.” The recent claims that writer-director Guillermo del Toro lifting the story from the 1969 play “Let Me Hear You Whisper” (just in time for voting!) may come back to bite “The Shape of Water.” A harbinger of that will be if Christopher Nolan upsets del Toro for Best Director. Nolan winning wouldn’t be a huge shame. Nolan is way, way overdue and deserves the honor for the expert direction on “Dunkirk.”
Tim Lammers reviews movies weekly for The KQ92 Morning Show,” “KARE 11 News at 11” (NBC), WCCO Radio, “The Tom Barnard Podcast” and “The BS Show” with Bob Sansevere.
There’s no question that director Guillermo del Toro’s fantasy romance “The Shape of Water” has received a lot of love this awards season, including the Directors Guild of America award for del Toro, and the best picture trophy from the Producers Guild of America for the filmmaker and his fellow producer, J. Miles Dale.
And yet, while “The Shape of Water” is up for a leading 13 Academy Awards Sunday, including nominations for Best Picture, Best Director for del Toro and Best Actress for Sally Hawkins, Dale said there truly is no better honor for any filmmaker as the heartfelt feedback he’s heard from fans about how deeply moved they were by the film.
“It’s gratifying that the movie is resonating with audiences. It has universal themes, no doubt, with love, tolerance and inclusion and all those things,” Dale said in a recent phone conversation from Los Angeles. “But I think what the movie has really going for it is nobody goes into it knowing what it’s going to be. Sure, from the trailer you can think, ‘Ah, it’s a Cold War thriller’ and it’s a little bit ‘Creature from the Black Lagoon,’ but I don’t think anybody is ready for where the love story lands. So, it’s really satisfying to see that people really get the movie, and maybe how it helps move the needle a bit with how they treat other people.”
Co-written by del Toro and Vanessa Taylor, “The Shape of Water” follows the unlikely path of Elisa Esposito (Hawkins), a mute janitor in a top-secret government research facility at the height of the Cold War in the early 1960s who forms a unique bond with an amphibious creature (del Toro’s longtime collaborator Doug Jones) with human characteristics. Finding a way to effectively communicate with the creature, Elisa’s love for the amphibious being grows, but since he’s being subjected to torturous experiments by the leader of the research project, Col. Richard Strickland (Michael Shannon), Elisa must formulate a daring escape for the creature from the facility before he faces a certain death.
Dale — who previously collaborated with del Toro as producers on the 2013 Andy Muschietti-directed, Jessica Chastain thriller “Mama” and most recently, as a producer and director on the del Toro-produced FX horror series “The Strain” — said pitching “The Shape of Water” to its studio, Fox Searchlight, wasn’t that difficult. That’s a pretty startling revelation, considering the film’s unconventional interspecies romance narrative — a narrative that ventures to daring, if not unfathomable lengths before all its pieces intersect and flow into the film’s genius conclusion.
“It’s funny, because I have made many jokes about how it should have been a hard pitch, but it actually wasn’t,” Dale said. “To Guillermo’s credit, he took them out to the museum that he has in his house in the San Fernando Valley, so he pitched it in the context of his incredible museum.”
Dale is speaking of Bleak House, where del Toro houses countless artifacts from horror, sci-fi and fantasy films and television series, as well as other mediums. The atmosphere of Bleak House (despite the foreboding implication of its name) no doubt enhanced del Toro’s pitch to Fox Searchlight’s executives.
“They loved it off the top. They saw the beauty of the idea from the beginning,” Dale said. “It should have been harder than it was. If he pitched it to the studio anywhere else, it probably would have been difficult. But Searchlight has been incredible partner and they’re not afraid to take chances, especially with great, visionary filmmakers, and I think they saw the opportunity to do something with Guillermo that was unique instead of fearing it.”
Dale believes by showcasing his otherworldly artifacts for Fox Searchlight, the studio fully realized the commonality that exists within many great filmmakers: a passion for the work not only because they know the material, but because they’re fans of it. And with the artifacts that he harbors in Bleak House, as well as a film collection that includes the “Hellboy” films and “Pan’s Labyrinth,” del Toro is completely at home with “The Shape of Water,” Dale said.
“What (Bleak House) really drives home is that Guillermo is such a fan,” Dale enthused. “He’s really just a fanboy who’s found his way. It’s cool that he has that purity of spirit. He’s dyed-in-the-wool with this. He’s not into sports or anything else. He’s all-in on arts and culture and spends half his money on movie props.”
With 14 nominations going into Sunday night’s Oscars, it’s pretty obvious that the Hollywood song-and-dance musical “La La Land” has the leg-up, so to speak, on the competition. However, while voters will go gaga over “La La,” don’t expect a clean-sweep and record-breaking number of wins (12). It will have to settle for a record-tying number of most nominations (14) instead.
Here are my predictions for the top five categories:
Best Supporting Actress nominees
Viola Davis: “Fences”
Naomie Harris: “Moonlight”
Nicole Kidman: “Lion”
Octavia Spencer: “Hidden Figures”
Michelle Williams: “Manchester by the Sea”
WILL WIN: Viola Davis. A veteran performer who should have won for Best Actress for “The Help” in 2012, Davis will easily win in a supporting role this year (she’s already taken the SAG Award in the category) and is the night’s only sure thing.
SHOULD WIN: Viola Davis. Davis’ performance opposite Denzel Washington is so strong that it almost feels like a lead. In fact, she would have probably won the Best Actress Oscar as a lead. It’s the first case of two Oscar races where you would hope for a tie, since four-time nominee Michelle Williams deserves the award just as much, mainly for her heartbreaking scene opposite Casey Affleck in the final act of the film.
POTENTIAL UPSET: Michelle Williams.
Best Supporting Actor nominees
Mahershala Ali: “Moonlight”
Jeff Bridges: “Hell or High Water”
Lucas Hedges: “Manchester by the Sea”
Dev Patel: “Lion”
Michael Shannon: “Nocturnal Animals”
WILL WIN: Mahershala Ali. The veteran actor has won virtual every award up to this point, including the SAG Award in the same category. Plus, he’s been a solid actor in every film and television show he’s appeared in for years.
SHOULD WIN: Michael Shannon. Just as reliable as Ali is Shannon, who clearly gives the strongest supporting performance of the year in the under-appreciated “Nocturnal Animals.” An upset in this category is not entirely out of the question, if you consider Mark Rylance’s stunning upset over Sylvester Stallone last year. At least Ali or Shannon will not have to worry about Bridges, who would easily take this award if not for his Best Actor Oscar win for “Crazy Heart” in 2010.
POTENTIAL UPSET: Jeff Bridges.
Best Actress nominees
Isabelle Huppert: “Elle”
Ruth Negga: “Loving”
Natalie Portman: “Jackie”
Emma Stone: “La La Land”
Meryl Streep: “Florence Foster Jenkins”
WILL WIN: Emma Stone. Stone gives one of the weaker performances out of the Best Actress group, but the fact that Academy voters identify with her actor character will push her over the top.
SHOULD WIN: Natalie Portman. Portman would be a shoo-in if not for the fact that she already won a Best Actress Oscar for “Black Swan” in 2011, and that second Oscar – especially as a lead character – is hard to come by.
POTENTIAL UPSET: Isabelle Huppert.
Best Actor nominees
Casey Affleck: “Manchester by the Sea”
Andrew Garfield: “Hacksaw Ridge”
Ryan Gosling: “La La Land”
Viggo Mortensen: “Captain Fantastic”
Denzel Washington: “Fences”
WILL WIN: Casey Affleck. Affleck gives what is easily the most gut-wrenching performances of the year and has a boat-load of critic awards to prove it, but Washington’s surprise SAG Award-win for “Fences” adds an interesting wrinkle to the competition. Ultimately, Washington will have to settle for the two Oscars he already has, since Oscar No. 3 for any actor – including Meryl Streep – is almost impossible to come by.
SHOULD WIN: Casey Affleck and Andrew Garfield. In a perfect world these two actors would tie. Affleck, for the aforementioned reason above, and Garfield for his stunning performance as Desmond Doss, the first conscientious objector to win a Congressional Medal of Honor.
POTENTIAL UPSET: Denzel Washington.
Best Picture nominees
“Arrival”
“Fences”
“Hacksaw Ridge”
“Hell or High Water”
“Hidden Figures”
“La La Land”
“Lion”
“Manchester by the Sea”
“Moonlight”
WILL WIN: “La La Land.” Among the most over-rated movies of the year, “La La Land” doesn’t deserve to even be a Best Picture nominee, much less a Best Picture winner. Still, with awards season momentum on its side, Damien Chazelle’s colorful musical about the high and lows of the la-la-life of a struggling actress and jazz musician may be too tough for voters – especially those who have faced the same struggles – to resist.
Chazelle, who really deserved a pair of Oscars for “Whiplash” a couple years back, will also take Best Director after taking the DGA honor earlier this month.
SHOULD WIN: “Hacksaw Ridge.” Any film nominated alongside it deserves the award more than “La La Land,” but nothing more than “Hacksaw Ridge,” the amazing true story of Desmond Doss, which has been buried in history for years. Director Mel Gibson’s first directorial effort in 10 years starts off in grand fashion as a character drama and romance, before shifting into one of the most brutal war films ever to hit the big screen.
The end result of the film about Doss, a battle medic who single-handedly saved 75 soldiers in the Battle of Okinawa in World War II, is a riveting depiction of courage, selflessness and sacrifice. Gibson also deserves the Best Director Oscar, but an upset is unlikely.
POTENTIAL UPSET: “Moonlight.”
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