After controversies including failed attempts at a Best Popular Film pitch and finding a host, to relegating four categories commercials in a desperate strive by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences to bring in the Oscars telecast under three hours, the already-embattled 91st annual Academy Awards celebration is almost here.
Like previous years, all the build up to the big night Sunday should yield few surprises, as critic and industry awards have once again established trends and given prognosticators fairly clear pictures of who and what films will be awarded with Oscars. And like previous years, the picks of the eventual winners by Academy members is sure to stir debate among movie fans and industry personnel, who will either gloat over who wins the top prizes or leave them declaring, “They were robbed!”
VIDEO: Watch Tim’s Oscar picks with Diana Pierce above on her web series “What’s Next? With Diana Pierce.”
AUDIO: Listen to Tim’s Oscar picks and a review of “How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World” with Paul Douglas and Jordana Green on WCCO-AM.
Here are my picks in the top categories for the 91st annual Academy Awards based on those trends, followed by who I think should win each prize.
Best Supporting Actor
Will win: Mahershala Ali, “Green Book”
Should win: Sam Elliott, “A Star is Born”
The clincher: Ali’s wins at the Screen Actors Guild Awards, the Critics Choice Awards and the Golden Globes gives the actor as much momentum as he needs to win the top prize.
Best Supporting Actress
Will win: Regina King, “If Beale Street Could Talk”
Should win: Amy Adams, “Vice”
The clincher: King’s wins at the Critics’ Choice Awards and the Golden Globes give her the leg up over her competitors, but Emily Blunt won the SAG Award in the category for “A Quiet Place” and wasn’t nominated. Because of that, Adams has a chance to sneak in a win with her sixth overall Oscar nomination.
Best Actor
Will win: Rami Malek, “Bohemian Rhapsody”
Should win: Malek
The clincher: Malek won Best Actor at the SAG Awards and Golden Globes (drama), but Christian Bale (“Vice”) took the Critics’ Choice Award for Best Actor in both the actor and comedy actor categories. Since he won an Oscar already for “The Fighter,” it’s unlikely the Academy will award him again so soon, unlike Ali.
Best Actress
Will win: Glenn Close, “The Wife”
Should win: Close
The clincher: Awards from SAG, the Golden Globes and Critics’ Choice (a tie with Lady Gaga), nothing will stop Close from winning, A) Because she’s a force of nature in the film, and B) This is her seventh nomination with no previous wins. It would be cruel to deny her the statuette this time. Don’t cry for Gaga, though; she’s a shoo-in as one of the writers of “Shallow” from “A Star is Born,” which is a shoo-in for Best Original Song.
AUDIO: Listen to Tim’s Oscar picks and a review of “How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World” with Tom Barnard on “The KQ Morning Show.”
Best Director
Will win: Alfonso Cuaron, “Roma”
Should win: Spike Lee, “BlacKkKlansman”
The clincher: Cuaron won the Directors Guild of America Award, perhaps the most accurate indicator of who will go on to win the Best Director Oscar. Since Lee has already been awarded with an honorary Oscar for his body of work, though, voters won’t feel sentimental here, even though “BlacKkKlansman” is a brilliant film.
Best Picture
Will win: “Roma”
Should win: “Green Book” or “A Star is Born” or “Bohemian Rhapsody” or “BlackKklansman” or “Black Panther” or “Vice”
The clincher: None, other than the fact that Cuaron is a cinch for taking home Oscars for Best Director, Best Cinematography, Best Editing and (possibly) Best Original Screenplay (and the Best Picture Oscar signals the sum total of its winning parts). For some mystifying reason, Hollywood is obsessed with this cinematic equivalent of watching paint dry, making “Roma” one of the most overrated films of the year along with “The Favourite” (both of which, by the way, are nominated for a leading 10 nominations).
“Green Book,” “Bohemian Rhapsody,” “BlacKkKlansman,” “Black Panther,” “Vice” and early favorite “A Star is Born” are far more deserving, because, well, they’re all engaging and compelling (isn’t that what movies are supposed to be about?). “Roma,” on the flip side, feels too self-important. Another thing working against “Roma” is that despite efforts to showcase in theaters is a Netflix production that’s been streaming for weeks, and there could be a voting backlash from film purists.
If any film stands a chance of upsetting “Roma” it would be “Green Book,” based on the film’s win at the Producers Guild Awards. Don’t count out on it, though, thanks to disputes about “Green Book’s” historical accuracy (something people gave a pass to with “The Favourite”) and director Peter Farrelly’s bizarre penchant for allegedly flashing his colleagues on his previous films.
Tim Lammers reviews movies weekly for The KQ92 Morning Show,” “KARE 11 News at 11” (NBC), WCCO Radio, WJON-AM, KLZZ-FM, “The Tom Barnard Podcast” and “The BS Show” with Bob Sansevere.
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